Sponsored by Students for Life of America and The Catholic Association
This analysis is based on the results of a nationally-representative telephone-interview survey with 1000 Catholics, conducted August 12-22, 2008. For purposes of comparison, 528 interviews were also completed among self-described born-again, evangelical, or fundamentalist Christians. Both samples utilized random-digit dialing methodology. The margin of sampling error for a sample of 1000 is ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level. The margin of sampling error for a sample of 528 is ±4.3% at a 95% confidence level. Throughout this report, a distinction is made between active Catholics, who attend Mass at least once a week, and “secular” Catholics, who attend Mass less frequently or not at all. For brevity, the born-again, Evangelical and fundamentalist Christian sample is referred to as Evangelicals.
See all the results of the 2008 Catholic Voter Survey.
The Horse Race
These are the head-to-head ballot questions.
- Among religiously-active Catholics likely to vote, McCain has 49%, Obama has 42%, 9% are undecided. Bush ultimately won this cohort in 2004 56%-43%.
- Among Evangelical or Born-Again Christians likely to vote, McCain leads Obama 61% - 34%, with 5% undecided. Bush won this cohort in 2004 66% - 32%.
While McCain currently edges out Obama with religiously active Catholics, he is still well short of the mark accomplished by Bush in 2004. McCain’s margin among Evangelical or Born-Again Christians is still significant if a bit lower than Bush’s final totals.
There are four issues which have the potential to significantly impact the current voting intentions of voters of faith.
Same Sex Marriage Legalization
▪ Nearly half (47%) of those who oppose same-sex marriage legalization (67%) would not consider voting for a candidate who had a different position on same sex marriage. Yet currently, 22% of those opposed to same sex marriage legalization who say they would not consider a candidate with a contrary position intend to vote for Obama. Another 5 percent of such voters are undecided. Put another way, 16 percent of the Obama vote comes from people who say that would not consider a supporter of same sex marriage.
Additional Restrictions on Abortion
▪ More than half (52%) of those who favor additional restrictions on abortion (55%) would not consider voting for a candidate who had a different position on abortion restrictions. Yet 18 percent of those favoring additional restrictions on abortion who would not vote for a pro-choice candidate intend to vote for Obama. Another six percent of such voters are undecided. Put another way, 12 percent of the current Obama vote comes from people who say they would not consider an opponent of additional restrictions on abortion.
The Infants Born-Alive Protection Act
▪ Two-thirds (63%) would not vote for a candidate who voted against an infants born-alive protection act. Yet 35 percent of these voters favor Obama. Fully 49 percent of the Obama vote comes from those who would not consider an opponent of infants born-alive protections.
If there is a cumulative effect to these “disqualifying” characteristics, then 69 percent of active Catholics, 59 percent of secular Catholics, and 75 percent of Evangelicals report they would not consider a candidate who had one of these three characteristics: opposed to additional restrictions on abortions, against a born-alive infant protections, and pro same-sex marriage. Barack Obama has all three of these characteristics.
Judicial Appointments
- Fifty-six percent (56%) of Active Catholics, 37 percent of Secular Catholics, and 56 percent of Evangelicals believe that traditional American values are threatened by liberal federal judges. A large majority (69%) of these voters (who perceive a threat from liberal federal judges) think John McCain is more likely to appoint judges who share their values. But 7 percent of them nonetheless are voting for Obama, and 4 percent are undecided.
- Another 16 percent think liberal federal judges are a threat, but that Obama is more likely to appoint compatible judges.